Inland Empire 4th riskiest US real estate market – Daily Breeze
“Bubble Watch” looks at trends that may indicate upcoming economic and / or real estate issues.
Buzz: The Inland Empire is the country’s fourth most “sparkling” real estate market, while the rest of California seems much less bubbling.
Source: The Bubble Watch Index is my trusty spreadsheet analysis of April home buying data from Zillow and Realtor.com covering 47 major markets. This “bubble watch” dashboard is based on average overvaluation rankings (price quotation in relation to values); overheating (list price gains over increases in value); speed of sale (days on the market compared to a year ago); the change in inventories for the year; and the change in annual rent.
The Bubble Watch Index ranks metro Atlanta (median list price $ 392,000) as the country’s sparkiest market, followed by Detroit ($ 285,000); and Jacksonville ($ 349,000). Next came a tie between Riverside and San Bernardino counties ($ 512,000) and Tampa-St. Petersburg ($ 327,000).
The Washington, DC area (median $ 506,000) had the lowest bubble score, followed by Minneapolis-St. Paul ($ 366,000); New York-New Jersey ($ 629,000); San Jose ($ 1.24 million); Seattle ($ 679,000); and San Francisco ($ 1.06 million).
People seem very willing to pay considerably in more “affordable” markets in a binge eating fueled by cheap mortgages and limited choices for home hunters.
You see the trend on my national stallion. And you can see a similar theme when you think about California trends: The hint shows that there are fewer overpayments near the expensive coast.
Consider the details of the ranking of Golden State’s five markets in the Bubble Watch Index, where the $ 3 million markets were well below this measure of risk.
The national No. 4 was the counties of Riverside-San Bernardino…
Pricing: Listing $ 512,000 for $ 460,833, or 11% overvaluation – 41st the highest of 47.
Appreciation: 22% list for 16.2% value, or 36% overheat – # 10 biggest gap.
Selling speed: 28 days on the market, down 50% in one year – No. 7 down.
Inventory: 64% drop in one year – decline # 11.
Rents: 15% increase in one year – increase # 1.
# 11 was Sacramento, the only other California market near the top …
Pricing: Listing $ 592,000 for a value of $ 507,735, an overvaluation of 17% – 33rd higher of 47.
Appreciation: List of 18.6% vs. 14.3% value, or 30% overheating – # 11.
Selling speed: 21 days on the market, down 45% in one year – No.11.
Inventory: Down 54% in one year – No.24.
Rents: Up 10% in one year – N ° 9.
# 32 of 47 was Los Angeles-Orange counties …
Pricing: Listing $ 1.11 million compared to a value of $ 783,610, an overvaluation of 42% – eighth in importance out of 47.
Appreciation: List 23.6% vs. 10.4% value, or 127% overheat – above 47.
Selling speed: 49 days on the market, down 17% year on year, above – No.44.
Inventory: Down 22% in one year – No.44.
Rents: Up 1% in one year – No.39.
N ° 42 was San Francisco-Oakland…
Pricing: List of $ 1.06 million versus $ 1.24 million, an undervaluation of 14% – last of 47.
Appreciation: List of 13.6% vs. 7.4% value, i.e. 84% overheating – No.4.
Selling speed: 27 days on the market, down 33% in one year – No.29.
Inventory: Down 6% in a year – last of 47.
Rents: Down 8% in a year – last of 47.
And San Jose is ranked # 44 …
Pricing: List $ 1.24 million vs. $ 1.36 million, or 9% undervaluation – No.46 of 47.
Appreciation: List of 3.3% against value of 5.9%, i.e. 44% cooled – N ° 34.
Selling speed: 22 days on the market, down 37% in one year – No.20.
Inventory: Down 11% in one year – No.46.
Rents: Down 7% in one year – No.45.
Do house hunters get nervous?
Every month since 1978, the Conference Board has polled American consumers and asked them, “Do you plan to buy a home in the next six months?”
In May, only 4.3% of respondents answered “Yes!” – the lowest level since February 2013 and down compared to 7.1% a month earlier; 6% a year ago; and a five-year average of 6.3%.
On a scale of zero bubble (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five alarm warning)… THREE BUBBLES … For California.
Remember, the Bubble Watch Index reflects the relative exuberance of these markets. And as I often say, this sort of ranking is art and science… so the beauty of any conclusion drawn from this analysis is definitely in the eye of the beholder.
So if you’re the type of person who thinks the terms and conditions of buying a home today are sustainable – I bet you’re selling real estate – you’d say the top of the rankings are just the top markets. hottest in the country.
However, if you’re like me and you’re worried that buying a home has gotten a little irrational – plus you’re Californian – here’s a little solace: The Golden State is not leading this maddening buying frenzy.
Jonathan Lansner is an economics columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be contacted at [email protected]