Inland Empire’s fourth riskiest US housing market – Pasadena Star News

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“” Bubble Watch: delve into trends that could indicate future economic and / or real estate issues in the market.

Buzz: Riverside-San Bernier is the fourth “sparklingest” real estate market in the United States, but the rest of California appears to be much less bubble-shaped.

Source: The Bubble Watch Index is an analysis of my credible spreadsheet of April home buying data from Zillow and Realtor.com covering 47 major markets. This “Bubble Watch” dashboard is based on an overestimated average ranking (list of prices and values). Overheating (increase in list price vs increase in value); Selling rate (days on the market and one year ago) Annual changes in inventory; and annual rent changes.

trend

The Bubble Watch Index ranks metro Atlanta (median list price $ 392,000) as the nation’s hottest market, followed by Detroit ($ 285,000). And Jacksonville ($ 349,000). Then Riverside County and San Bernardino County ($ 512,000) were tied for Tampacent. Petersburg ($ 327,000).

The Washington, DC area (median of $ 506,000) had the lowest bubble score, followed by Minneapolis-Cent. Paul ($ 366,000); New York-New Jersey ($ 629,000); San Jose ($ 1.24 million); Seattle ($ 679,000); San Francisco ($ 1.06 million).

Anatomy

People seem very happy to make spectacular payments in the more “affordable” markets amid the binge eating supported by cheap mortgages and the limited options of home hunters.

You see the trends by my national standards. And when you think about trends in California, you’ll see a similar theme: The index shows there are less overpayments near expensive beaches.

Consider the details of the five Golden State market rankings in the Bubble Watch Index. The $ 3 million market is well below this measure of risk.

The fourth place in the country was Riverside-San Bernardino County…

the price: A listing of $ 512,000 and a value of $ 460,833, which is an 11% overestimate – 41st out of 47.

Thank you: List 22% and value 16.2%, or overheat 36% – 10th largest deviation.

Selling speed: 28th in the market, down 50% in one year – 7th down.

Stock: 64% decrease per year – decrease from 11th place.

location: 15% increase per year – increase # 1.

The 11th place was Sacramento. This is the only market close to the top of California …

the price: Listing $ 592,000 vs. $ 507,735, an overestimate of 17% – the 33rd highest of 47.

Thank you: 18.6% list against 14.3% value, or 30% overheating – # 11.

Selling speed: 21 days on the market, down 45% in one year – No.11.

Stock: 54% decrease per year – 24th place.

location: 10% increase per year – 9th place.

The 32nd of 47 was Los Angeles-Orange County…

the price: The list is $ 1.11 million, or $ 783,610, an overestimate of 42%, the eighth highest of 47.

Thank you: List 23.6% vs. 10.4% value, or 127% overheat – 47 above.

Selling speed: 49 days on the market, down 17% year on year, above – No.44.

Stock: Decrease of 22% per year – N ° 44.

location: Increase of 1% per year – N ° 39.

The 42nd place was San Francisco-Oakland…

the price: Listing $ 1.06 million versus $ 1.24 million, an underestimate of 14% – the last of 47.

Thank you: List of 13.6% vs. 7.4% value, i.e. 84% overheating – No.4.

Selling speed: 27th on the market, down 33% in one year – N ° 29.

Stock: Decrease of 6% per year – end of 47.

location: Decrease of 8% per year – end of 47.

And San Jose placed 44th …

the price: List $ 1.24 million vs. $ 1.36 million, or undervalued by 9% – 46th out of 47.

Thank you: List of 3.3% against a value of 5.9%, i.e. 44% cooling – N ° 34.

Selling speed: 22 days on the market, 37% drop in one year – N ° 20.

Stock: 11% decrease per year – 46th place.

location: 7% decrease per year – 45th place.

Another view

Is the house hunter amazing?

Every month since 1978, the Conference Board has polled American consumers and asked them, “Do you plan to buy a home in the next six months?”

In May, only 4.3% of those polled answered “yes”. – This is the lowest level since February 2013, against 7.1% last month. 6% a year ago. And the 5-year average is 6.3%.

How do you foam?

On a scale of zero bubble (no bubble here) to 5 bubbles (5 alarm warnings)… 3 bubbles … In the case of California.

Keep in mind that the Bubble Watch Index reflects the relative dynamism between these markets. And, as I often say, this kind of ranking is part of art and science… Therefore, the beauty of the conclusions drawn from this analysis is undoubtedly in the eyes of the beholder.

So if you are the kind of person who thinks your overall home buying situation is sustainable today, you are forced to sell real estate, but pretending that number one is just the market. warmer in the country. Let’s do it.

But if you’re like me and say buying a house is a bit absurd, then you’re California. Here is some reassurance. Golden State is not leading the hustle and bustle of this nervous buy.

Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for Southern California NewsGroup, which he can reach at [email protected]

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